Working out your Poker odds

Working out your odds of hitting the card need to make that flush or straight can help you decide if it is worth calling of folding the hand. You do also need to consider that if you get your hand, will it still beat the other player, but that is something you learn as you go.

There are a number of ways to calculate, but I always use the following way.
First of all, you only every take in to account the cards you can see, so assume that none of the other players have the card you want or need. Say you are holding AK Hearts; you have the same chance of making a hand or pair as someone holing 57. If the flop comes down 3h,8h,9c. You will need one more card to make your flush. There are 13 cards of each suit in the deck, less the 4 you can see, will leave you with 9 outs. You then multiply your number of out by 4, to get the rough estimate of your % chance of hitting the card. This will give you the % chance of 27%. Now if the next card comes down and it is a club, then you still have another card to give you your flush. But as there is only one more card due out then you will reduce your % chance by half; or multiply your outs by 2; thus giving you the chance of hitting your card down to 18%.

Now you also need to consider the chance of hitting a pair, which will increase your chance % chance of getting a hand. You have AK, so you also have the chance of hitting a pair with these cards. There are 3 A’s left and 3 K’s left. So you have 9 + 3 + 3 = 15 outs after the flop. Multiply by 4 will give you 60% chance of hitting a hand after the flop and 30% after the turn.
A tip when working out your outs is to make sure you never count the same card twice as an out.

You also need to consider if it is worth making a call or a raise if you hit a pair. This is where the skill element comes in. You need to read your player and try to figure out if they are trying to bluff you off the pot, or if they do really have a hand. This is where making a note of your opponents playing style will come in handy. If they are a tight player, then they are more than likely to have a good hand. If they seem to call everything down to the river or rise on a regular basis then they could be a lose player and be trying to bluff you off the pot.

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